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It would pathetic and stupid because she'd be clearly lying and it'd make a bad impression of her. It's not about paparazzis, it's about tell the truth. If she's really pregnant, she wouldn't have said the true, and this would put her as a liar. And being a liar is not really good, don't you think?
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She wouldn't be the first and even the last to deny a pregnancy and then actually be expecting a baby. Most of celebrities do that. As I said before: Christina Aguilere, J.Lo, Nicole Kidman...
It's actually better, if it can end like Lily Allen, who told everybody she was pregnant in the first month and had a miscarriege.
So, I don't think Avril would be idiot for that.
And she denied the engagement when she was engaged.
It's really tough to a celebrity to assume huge things like marriege and pregnancy because of all the crazy tabloids.